Triple Crisis blogger Adil Najam recorded the following interview with the Economist on the likely pitfalls and potential of the upcoming climate negotiations in Cancún and the particular challenges climate change poses for poor countries and their development interests. Listen to the full interview at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.
Spotlight Cancún: The Curtain Rises for Climate Negotiations
The UN Climate Change Conference started today and will be meeting for the next two weeks in the resort city of Cancún, México. The Spotlight Cancún series, a joint series by Triple Crisis and the Real Climate Economics blog, which this post begins, will invite experts to analyze different aspects of the climate change negotiations, and how these, in turn affect the bigger picture of finance, development and the environment. We welcome Miquel Muñoz as a regular contributor to Triple Crisis to begin the discussion.
The Cancún conference runs through December 10 and comprises: six official UNFCCC meetings (COP 16, COP/MOP 6, AWG-LCA 13, AWG-KP 15, SBSTA 33 and SBI 33); side conferences such as the Global Business Day, Agriculture and Rural Development Day, Oceans Day, Development and Climate Days, and Forest Day; hundreds of official and unofficial side events; and all the social and cultural activities that traditionally accompany such meetings, such as the climate village. Cancún, like previous UN Climate Change Conferences, is more than just a negotiation; it’s the yearly gathering of the climate change community.
Over the next two weeks, we may or may not hear about Cancún in the news. Distractions such as sabre-rattling half a world away and leaks of US diplomatic cables will keep the two greatest greenhouse gas emitters, the US and China, the UN Secretary-General, foreign ministries from all over the world, the international press and others occupied. But even without these distractions, the truth is that expectations for any agreement happening in Cancún were already low. So low, in fact, that some analysts have even posted a pre-mortem of the meeting.
Policy Space at the WTO: Developing Countries Should Reject Demands in Manufacturing Negotiations
After a failure to initiate a new trade round in Seattle in 1999, the so-called Doha Development Round began before the end of 2001, in the midst of mistrust between developing and developed countries. In the text of the Doha Development Agenda, a lot of lip-service was paid to development issues. Since 2001, there has been one failure after another in reaching an agreement by the two parties. Will the Round be concluded? In my view, if developed countries insist on their anti-development stance, it should not.
The crisis in trade negotiation is a crisis of confidence in the intention of developed countries, which are basically concerned with their own interests rather than the mutual interests of both parties. According to Ms. Barshefsky, an ex-US trade representative: “[the] developing world is not hearing what we are saying and we’re not hearing what the developing world is saying. We’re passing like ships in the night”.
European Debt Crisis and "Currency Wars" Halted G-20 Progress
Martin Khor
Part of a Triple Crisis series on the Nov. 11-12 G-20 meetings.
Triple Crisis blogger Martin Khor published the following opinion article for the Malaysia Star on the two issues that prevented progress at the G-20 meetings in Seoul: the new financial near-crisis in Europe and the ongoing debate about the competitive devaluation of currencies.
Inconclusive end to G-20 summit
The world economy remains in a web of serious problems with the potential to break out in new crises. The G20 summit last week discussed them but could not agree on the causes or how to resolve them. Even as the G20 leaders were meeting in Seoul, the real drama was taking place half a world away, as Europe stood on the brink of a new financial crisis.
Ireland faced a big jump in the interest cost of its debt, arising from (and giving rise to) fears that it would have to be bailed out, like Greece some months ago, or even face a debt default.
It seems like the crisis of investors losing confidence could also spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy.
European Debt Crisis and “Currency Wars” Halted G-20 Progress
Martin Khor
Part of a Triple Crisis series on the Nov. 11-12 G-20 meetings.
Triple Crisis blogger Martin Khor published the following opinion article for the Malaysia Star on the two issues that prevented progress at the G-20 meetings in Seoul: the new financial near-crisis in Europe and the ongoing debate about the competitive devaluation of currencies.
Inconclusive end to G-20 summit
The world economy remains in a web of serious problems with the potential to break out in new crises. The G20 summit last week discussed them but could not agree on the causes or how to resolve them. Even as the G20 leaders were meeting in Seoul, the real drama was taking place half a world away, as Europe stood on the brink of a new financial crisis.
Ireland faced a big jump in the interest cost of its debt, arising from (and giving rise to) fears that it would have to be bailed out, like Greece some months ago, or even face a debt default.
It seems like the crisis of investors losing confidence could also spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy.
"Gather and Sell": Ghana's Illegal Gold Industry
Thomas Lee, re-posted from World Policy Institute
Following Triple Crisis blogger Lyuba Zarsky’s piece on mining and sustainable development, we bring you celebrated photojournalist Thomas Lee’s vivid photo essay on Ghana’s black market gold industry from the World Policy Institute. Triple Crisis is pleased to announce the World Policy Institute as a blog partner.
Deadly Gold
Dunkwa-on-offin, Ghana—An illegal gold mine collapsed in these remote jungles on June 27, 2010, after heavy rains hit central Ghana. At least 100 people were buried, but that’s just an estimate. The owner had no idea how many of his 136 hires were working at the time of his arrest, and the dozen illegal miners who survived kept their mouths shut, fearing prosecution. This is hardly a rare incident, but it provides a vivid snapshot of the deeply rooted abuses in Ghana’s ancient and ever more profitable gold complex. Theo and his team head to work as dusk begins to fall at the illegal gold mines in the bush of Kenyasi, Ghana.
“Gather and Sell”: Ghana’s Illegal Gold Industry
Thomas Lee, re-posted from World Policy Institute
Following Triple Crisis blogger Lyuba Zarsky’s piece on mining and sustainable development, we bring you celebrated photojournalist Thomas Lee’s vivid photo essay on Ghana’s black market gold industry from the World Policy Institute. Triple Crisis is pleased to announce the World Policy Institute as a blog partner.
Deadly Gold
Dunkwa-on-offin, Ghana—An illegal gold mine collapsed in these remote jungles on June 27, 2010, after heavy rains hit central Ghana. At least 100 people were buried, but that’s just an estimate. The owner had no idea how many of his 136 hires were working at the time of his arrest, and the dozen illegal miners who survived kept their mouths shut, fearing prosecution. This is hardly a rare incident, but it provides a vivid snapshot of the deeply rooted abuses in Ghana’s ancient and ever more profitable gold complex. Theo and his team head to work as dusk begins to fall at the illegal gold mines in the bush of Kenyasi, Ghana.
Can Mining Promote Sustainable Development? Maybe, But Not Without State Muscle
For decades, progressive economists have argued that, as a development strategy, mining is a “resource curse”. The main reason is that capital-intensive mineral exploitation creates enclaves with few positive spillovers, i.e. linkages to the local economy, and many negative social and environmental spillovers. Moreover, the rents and returns generated by mining can be—and in case after case have been shown to be—captured by local elites and foreign shareholders rather than distributed to or invested in local communities. The upshot is that large-scale mineral-led development retards economic growth and innovation and promotes corruption and social conflict.
Consequences of the Financial Crisis: The Responsibility of the State
The public discussion about the root causes and consequences of the financial crisis seems to be over before it really began. In Europe, the discourse focuses on the astonishing economic recovery, rather than the roots of the crisis and how we can prevent a recurrence.
What would it take to prevent a recurrence? In addition to rebalancing the relationship between the state and the financial sector, the state must regain its dominance and its capacity to act, independently from the financial sector. What might this take?
Are High Agricultural Prices Good or Bad for Poverty?
Dani Rodrik is back, and he reignites an old debate with his recent blog post. He asks if high food prices are good or bad for poverty, and answers, “It depends on whether the poor are selling or buying, of course.” Citing a recent paper by Jacob Swinnen, he goes on, “High food prices benefit poor farmers who are net food sellers, and hurt poor food consumers in urban areas. Low food prices have the opposite effects. In each case, the net effect on poverty depends on the balance between these two effects.”
Seems obvious, but not so fast: What if the poor also work for wages and agricultural prices affect labor markets? Sandra Polaski and others have shown that when one incorporates labor market effects of high vs. low agricultural prices, high prices will clearly be better for many developing countries.