Can a low-carbon economy thrive in a resource-constrained world?

Eric Kemp-Benedict, Amanda Fencl and Elena Dawkins, guest bloggers

There’s a growing momentum around the world to build a ‘green’ economy – with a special focus on energy – as a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent dangerous climate change while also increasing energy security.

But resource constraints could hinder this endeavour. Low-carbon technologies such as photovoltaics, wind turbines, and electric and hybrid cars, for example, use metals that are mined only in a handful of countries, which can limit their availability. This is already a major international issue, as evidenced by the recent complaint filed by the U.S., the EU and Japan with the World Trade Organization, challenging China’s restrictions on exports of rare-earth metals.

Biofuels development, meanwhile, has faced substantial push-back because of concerns that fuel crops will displace food crops – or displace forests and vitally important ecosystems. In addition, these crops compete for what are often limited water resources.

And while, for the most part, it’s less talked about, water availability could also constrain low-carbon electricity – not just hydropower, but also solar thermal, geothermal and other renewable technologies that use water for cooling. If we want to produce low-carbon energy on a large scale – a must if we want to keep global temperature increases under 2°C – we need to ensure we’ll have enough water.

Last year, a multidisciplinary, international team at the Stockholm Environment Institute took on these issues as part of a research partnership with the business-led initiative 3C (Combat Climate Change). We set out to accomplish two goals: first, to quantify the potential problems, and second, to identify potential solutions – including both existing technologies and policies, and new options to explore.

This week, we published our findings in three separate reports on biomass, metals and water, plus three policy briefs. Each combines reviews of the relevant science, technologies and policies with scenario-based analyses and recommendations – and all three confirm that indeed, there are reasons for concern.

Yet we also found plenty of reasons for optimism. Let us be clear: We by no means believe that a low-carbon transition is unfeasible, or that resource constraints will inevitably hinder it. Instead we believe that careful consideration of the issues reveals opportunities.

Further, we believe that we can’t just keep developing technologies and industries without regard for the bigger picture. The future of the low-carbon economy depends on the ability of businesses and policy-makers to recognise these very real constraints and to develop appropriate management and policy responses.

It’s clear, for example, that we can’t keep expanding biofuels production without looking at the enormous demands that we’re already putting on agriculture and on ecosystems. But our scenario analysis suggests that if we take an integrated approach and work intensively on boosting agricultural yields, we could feed the world, use biomass for energy, and lay the groundwork for new industrial uses of plant material. The total agricultural ‘footprint’ would likely increase, but local sustainability goals could be built into land-use plans, with some yield gains and crop land forgone to strengthen ecosystems.

With metals, we already see industry developing new technologies that use smaller amounts of scarce materials, or substitute less-scarce alternatives. There is also a growing interest in recycling – though with some metals, this is still difficult because of the small quantities involved. And technological solutions will only go so far: we believe it’s also important for governments to address economic and political factors, and build strategic partnerships at the international level to secure metals supplies.

With regard to water for electricity, we believe the prospects for renewables will vastly improve if policy-makers, resource planners and energy companies make sure to consider future water availability – under multiple usage and climate scenarios – when they plan for new generation capacity.

Some regions have plenty of water and don’t have to worry that, say, a geothermal power plant will unduly strain the water supply. But where water is a concern, alternatives may be available – photovoltaics instead of solar thermal power, for example, or water-efficient cooling systems.

Water recycling and reuse could also help: treated municipal wastewater (‘grey water’), water discharged during oil and natural-gas mining, wastewater from industrial processes, and agricultural runoff are all options. The key is to consider the water needs of electricity generation systems in their actual hydrologic and water management context.

These are just a few of the many strategies we identified to address resource scarcity. The challenges are real and substantial, but they are not insurmountable. Our studies show that the key is to be proactive, and to look across sectors and seek solutions collaboratively. We hope our contributions will help advance progress towards a low-carbon economy, and welcome opportunities to do more.

This piece was originally published at www.e2bpulse.com.

Elena Dawkins is a research associate in the Stockholm Environment Institute’s York Centre, at the University of York, and lead author of the SEI/3C report on metals. Eric Kemp-Benedict is a senior scientist in SEI’s U.S. Center and lead author of the SEI/3C biomass report; and Amanda Fencl is a staff scientist in SEI’s U.S. Center and lead author of the SEI/3C water report.

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